Fall of Dubai World - Who Next?

Dubai is famous for its over ambitious builders & their projects. Everyone in middle east still consider  Dubai as model and racing with others to overtake Dubai. Dubai is the most vain and resource wasting places ever built by man. More incredibly we are being asked to believe this place built on sand is not the result of wasting oil money. Lots of big housing/commercial projects in Bahrain & Abu Dhabi etc are still under development to emulate Palm Jumairah  in their own way which has already become epitome of Dubai crisis.

Dubai crisis started from 'Realty' bubble which started to bust after unrealistic prices across the board  and without thinking about the sustainability of prices, demand and supply. Every Tom, Harry and Dick (btw gulf has in abundance)  was trying to become  another Donald Trump and people got sucked in the name of owning a house. $40K  worth of house was sold around a  $200 K  and people went on to buy despite beyond their reach. Their logic- Today’s  $200 K  house would get a value of $1200 K within 5 years. People started to think an asset would always appreciate than thinking about the real value.  Realtors spent a lot of money in unproductive things to justify the prices.

Banks started to give loans to real estate companies without assessing the real value. Their aim is to mint millions in interests. But these banks have forgotten to assess real value of realtors. Banks started to concentrate on variety of activities other than banking. They ventured in Forex, and derivatives which no one understands in the world. People went on buying homes with multiple EMIs without thinking about  their financial stability & sustainability of the plan.

Greed is the only reason for this crisis. Every product and service was priced artificially and companies have been started overnight and it looted money from public. “Overnight millionaire” was the motto for most of the entrepreneur.

Companies went on to stretch beyond their capabilities and core competencies. They took too much leverage. If you don’t think big, you’re dumb. Every company becomes dumb by over expanding in new businesses that are not their core competence. They employed thousands of people and borrowed through various innovative instruments which would be subscribed by a genius called private equity.

Take ex. of India. Whole India ran at leverage and domestic growth story. If  Pantaloon enters in retail business (Big Bazar), why we should wait was the question asked by Birla group and they acquired some retail companies and started MORE which is now creating more problems for Birla group. Stock broking is another business in which everyone from Kashmir to Kanyakumari started to capture their share in India. Insurance is another. Likewise everyone started everything and they went on to demolish brands and made every service as a commodity.

Everything has been created based on domestic growth theory which has been misunderstood by corporate managers who work in air-conditioned room with their tailor made PowerPoint presentations as designed in their PMBOK which they never understood.  They went on to give amazing numbers to their bosses and as a result everyone went on to venture in a crowded business and made it un-viable for everyone who has started it without knowing ground reality about the business.Whole mess has been started by marketing managers who doesn’t know any ground reality about business but who play efficiently with numbers, statistics, case studies and PowerPoint presentations.

Now these folks are calling this crisis as a event that occur once in a lifetime and it was beyond  imagination of everyone. Mess that has been created by managers without understanding of real condition. Mess that has been created in the name of expansion and diversification. Mess that has been created by leverage. Mess that has been created by greed of creditors. Mess that has been created by fictitious value creation by banks. Its all the creditors of Dubai who should be blamed rather than its vain leader for providing it money in bucket loads.

Analysts expect Dubai to receive financial support from Abu Dhabi - a fellow member of the UAE and home to most of its oil - though it may have to abandon an economic model focused on developing swathes of desert with foreign money and labors resulting in huge no. of job losses as cost cutting & restructuring efforts in the next few months.

Project Risk Management

We often execute the risk identification process many times within an iteration's life cycle or project life cycle. I prefer to execute it at regular intervals, during the monitoring and control phase, down till the closure phase. Many would do it even during the planning phase.

Planning is a optimistic exercise, Risk Management is pessimistic. When planning, we are optimistic about what should get done, by whom, in what sequence and when it should get done. After its planned, if we run through the plan with a pessimistic mind asking many 'what if' questions, particularly with those tasks for which we are not completely confident, I think many risks will be unearthed.

That means, even before the plan is put to execution, we should execute the same in our mind -pessimistically.

Another activity which can generate value is in the way the mitigation for the risks are managed.  Mitigations are action items. These action items (i.e., the risk mitigation), most could be within the direct authority and control of the Project Manager. Those which are not should be highlighted in the reviews as items for management attention and their ownership should be assigned and tracked.

To summarize ...

1. Execute the Plan even before executing it
2. Execute Risk Management processes (identification, prioritization, mitigation etc.) periodically
3. Maintain a centralized Action Items log and add the mitigation to this log
4. Highlight risk mitigation items that need management attention during Project Reviews
5. Assign ownership to each Action Item and track them to closure

GIS Data Quality & Concept of Six Sigma

A lot of different procedures for identification and improving business processes have been developed and tried by businesses with varying degrees of success. Some of the most notable earlier procedures include  Value Chain and Total Quality Management (TQM), Business Process Re-engineering, Enterprise Resources Planning (ERP), and Six Sigma methodology etc.

If we go as per the definition, to achieve Six Sigma, a process must not produce more than 3.4 defects per million opportunities. A Six Sigma defect is defined as anything outside of customer specifications. A Six Sigma opportunity is then the total quantity of chances for a defect.

Why is Six Sigma so important in the improvement process? We talk of Six Sigma level implementations having an accuracy of 99.99966 percent. Well, after reading the following statistics compiled by the American Society for Quality, you will agree that it definitely is not!
Being 99 percent accurate means that:

• There is no electric power for nearly 7 hours every month in USA cities.
• Every hour, at least 20,000 letters are lost in the mail.
• Over 200,000 errors are made in medical prescriptions on an annual basis.
• Every week, doctors botch up 5,000 surgeries.
• Major airports report 2 incorrect landings every day.

Six Sigma is completely different from the traditional quality model of process capability. Traditional quality model was applied only to manufacturing processes, while Six Sigma is applied to all important business processes. Traditional quality model was known as Three Sigma.Three Sigma had a process standard deviation of less than one-sixth of the total allowable spread. Six Sigma requires the process standard deviation at less than one-twelfth of the total allowable spread.

There are several steps for the implementation of Six Sigma in an organization. These steps include:

• Understanding the commitment of top leadership

• Access to current information on customer requirements

• A process management system to measure current performance and identify where you need to make improvements

• Employing Black Belts and Green Belts to design and improve processes and to assist process owners

• Allowing management involvement and review to reinforce process management, improvement and design

• Adopting effective communication strategy to ensure that Six Sigma methods are implemented throughout the organization. Some famous organizations who have implemented the highest level of quality control are NASA, Boeing, AirBus etc.

Why not in GIS?

Lack of defined accuracy standards, data acceptance criteria and standardization of data preparation processes make it difficult to implement  any uniform quality standards in GIS projects.  GIS data is not a  finished product  in true sense as its  currency & completeness is dependent on  type of uses and many external ever changing factors that may affect  data quality during the QC stage itself. Multiple stake holders of different skills and requirements also hamper standardization. There is not a single GIS co. in the world that has implemented six sigma maturity model for data quality control. That means either  concept of 99.999966 % accuracy is not applicable to GIS or its not worth consideration because of its huge implications on cost and operations.

For promoting quality culture in the organization, one must first have quality people. People who understand the importance of Quality. The very first thing to have is quality leaders. If the organization can boost of quality leaders, they can easily achieve the quality service, quality product. It's not a one time affair or one persons job so in ever changing scenario one must always look into the opportunity to surpass there earlier best enabling them to produce quality products on constant basis. Three factors are important, quality resources, recognizing the importance of quality in work, investment with encouragement on continuous basis.

So, what to say to  those naive people who demand 100% quality of data every time without having quality people. Either they don't know the basics of GIS or just use quality issues as staletactic to delay the vendor payments and misguide the stake holders on their own side. Quality is everyone's responsibility at all level no matter you are on vendor side or client.

Talking - A poem by Khalil Gibran

And then a scholar said, "Speak of Talking."
And he answered, saying:
You talk when you cease to be at peace with your thoughts;
And when you can no longer dwell in the solitude of your heart you live in your lips, and sound is a diversion and a pastime.
And in much of your talking, thinking is half murdered.
For thought is a bird of space, that in a cage of words many indeed unfold its wings but cannot fly.
There are those among you who seek the talkative through fear of being alone.
The silence of aloneness reveals to their eyes their naked selves and they would escape.
And there are those who talk, and without knowledge or forethought reveal a truth which they themselves do not understand.
And there are those who have the truth within them, but they tell it not in words.
In the bosom of such as these the spirit dwells in rhythmic silence.
When you meet your friend on the roadside or in the market place, let the spirit in you move your lips and direct your tongue.
Let the voice within your voice speak to the ear of his ear;
For his soul will keep the truth of your heart as the taste of the wine is remembered
When the color is forgotten and the vessel is no more............